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Invited researcher William C. Wohlforth
Contract number
14.641.31.0002
Time span of the project
2018-2020

As of 20.05.2020

24
Number of staff members
35
scientific publications
General information

Name of the project: Transformation of the system of international relations in the context of shift of the technological setup

Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development Priority Level: д


Goals and objectives

Research directions: Meta-trends, international relations, evolution of the international system, the world order, new challenges and threats, scenario analysis and forecasting, big data analysis, shift of the technological setup

Project objective: Analysis and forecasting of threats to national security of Russia in the context of increase of conflict formation potential in international relations, conditions of regional instability in the presence of a shift in technological setup


The practical value of the study

  • We have developed a typology of forecasting research in the field of international relations: introduced a distinction between «weak forecasts» (probabilistic predictive statements that arise as an extrapolation on the basis of deductive nomothetic theories) and «strong forecasts» («ideographic» forecasts, i. e. building scenarios of possible development of events in concrete situations with concrete sets of participants).

  • Our researchers have conducted an analysis of the tendency of development of international military conflicts. On the basis of the results of the analysis we conducted a complex review of the Russian vision of the future of war and military conflicts.

  • We have operationalised the specifics of the impact of the anarchic structure of the international relations onto the logic of their historical development.

  • We have prepared a basis for creation of a prototype of a software service for determining the markers of analysis of the external policies of a state using automatic tools ensuring data collection, storage, primary processing and analysis at various levels.

  • The Laboratory has assessed the efficiency of the economical toolkit in the implementation of Russia's policies in relation to Eastern European countries that are oriented towards integration with the European Union.
  • We have found the causes of the crisis of the modern West-centered agenda of the international development as well as the features of its perception in developing countries (on the example of the BRICS group).
  • The Laboratory has analysed the explanatory potential of the concept of war as the key propelling force of state-building for characterisation of the processes of genesis of the countries of the post-Soviet region.

  • We have conducted an analysis of the development of the American policy of military development in relation to the anti-rocket defence program after the end of the Cold War.
  • We have compiled and presented a short-term forecast of the development of the international situation for 2019 («International threats-2019») and 2020 («International threats-2020»).

Implemented results of research:

As a part of the work of the Laboratory we have organised periodic expert seminars on the key problems of the international relations. The seminars attract members of the academic community, the commercial sector and public authorities. The materials of the discussions find their reflection in the work of policy-forming and business societies of Russia and receive high praise from them.

Education and career development: 1 candidate dissertation has been defended

Organizational and structural changes: On the grounds of the Laboratory we have created the leading center for analysis and forecasting international relations in Russia

Other results:

The conclusions on the prospects of development of the international situation in 2019 and 2020 prepared by the Laboratory's analysts and systematised in the forecasts «International threats-2019» and «International threats-2020» found their reflection in publications of federal and regional Russian as well as international issues. The wide media coverage of the statements of the forecasts testifies to the existence of a high interest in them from the public. Moreover, this shows the existence of prospects for commercialisation of the Laboratory's work.

Collaborations:

  • «Sensemaking Laboratory» LLC (Russia): joint research
  • «Consulting agency of MGIMO Eurasian Strategies» (Russia): promoting results of research

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Silaev N., Sushentsov A.
Strategic Security in Eurasia. Eurasia on the Edge: Managing Complexity / R. Sakwa, P. Dutkiewicz, F. Lukyanov (eds.). N.Y.: Lexington Books, 2018. Pp. 7–19.
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