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Laboratory for the Research of the Ozone Layer and the Upper Atmosphere

Invited researcher Rozanov Evgueni Vladimirovich
Time span of the project
2021-2023
General information

The importance of the understanding of the recent and past changes in the ozone layer and the climate, and the forecasting of future changes, especially in the Russian Arctic and sub-Arctic, has important ecological, social, and economic implications and is recognised at the level of the government. The relevance of the problem is escalated by the absence of substantial proof of recovery of the ozone layer, the emergence of a massive ozone hole over the Arctic in the spring of 2020 and the formation of ozone mini-holes. Ozone layer research requires a consideration of the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors acting in the atmosphere from the surface of the Earth up to the near-Earth space.  

Name of the project: The forecasting of the state of the ozone layer by means of modelling and measurement of the composition of the atmosphere

Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development Priority Level: д
Goals and objectives

The objective of the project is to solve scientific and educational problems related to middle-term (up to a month) and long-term (up to 200 years) forecasting of the development of the ozone layer caused by natural and anthropogenic factors, climate change and the state of space weather. The main goals of the research are:

  1. The implementation and analysis of ground and satellite measurements of ozone, ozone-destroying substances (ODS) and the state of the atmosphere.
  2. The assessment of the past and the forecasting of the future behaviour of the ozone layer using modern models of photochemistry and the climate with consideration to various impacts, including the variability of greenhouse gases and ODS.
  3. The development of the new atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere model and its application to the study of the impact of space weather on the variability of the ozone layer.
  4. The analysis of the middle-term variability of the ozone layer caused by perturbations of the atmospheric dynamics and space weather.

The practical value of the study

The created inter - disciplinary laboratory will unite the efforts of theorists and experimentalists researching the lower, the middle and the upper atmosphere, including the magnetosphere and the near-Earth space. This will allow to conduct unique research of the ozone layer at a new level that has not been attained earlier in Russia and Europe and to solve fundamental and applied problems of magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere connections.

Projected research results: 

  • The organisation of the interdisciplinary laboratory «‎Research of the Ozone Layer and the Upper Atmosphere»‎ within the structure of the Saint Petersburg State University.
  • New temporal series of the ozone content and the most important ozone-destroying substances (ODS) over Saint Petersburg and territories of the Arctic and the sub-Arctic.
  • Temporal series of the ozone content and the most important radicals according satellite data.
  • A renewed chemistry-climate model (CCM) for long-term modelling of the climate and the state of the ozone layer.
  • The assessment of the successfulness of the reproduction of observed tendencies of the ozone layer and ODS by means of the CCM.
  • The forecasting of the behaviour of the ozone layer in the future taking into account the evolution of the climate caused by the scenarios developed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP-6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • A new model encompassing the atmosphere, the ionosphere and the magnetosphere, for short-term (up to a month) modelling of the response of the ozone layer to events related to space weather and dynamic connections of different layers of the atmosphere.
  • The quantitative assessment of the relation between the ozone layer and the variability of the global electron content, the value of O/N2 in the upper layers of the atmosphere and various ionospheric abnormalities.
  • The creation of a database containing the ionisation velocities in the atmosphere related to processes in the magnetosphere that are important for the ozone layer and the upper atmosphere.
  • The assessment of the reaction of the ozone layer to events related to explosive events on the Sun, geomagnetic storms and energetic particle precipitation.
  • The assessment of the reaction of the ozone layer to events caused by atmospheric waves and meteorological disturbances in the lower and the middle atmosphere (for instance, the ozone mini-holes, sudden stratospheric warmings and local wave activity).
  • A version of CCM for mid-term forecasting of the state of the ozone layer using assimilation of meteorological forecasts and its validation using ground and satellite measurements of the ozone layer.
  • The forecasting of solar erythema radiation doses in the future, sudden changes of ozone, aerosol and cloud cover.




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