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Invited researcher Pavel Yakovlevich Groisman
Contract number
Time span of the project

As of 30.01.2020

Number of staff members
scientific publications
Objects of intellectual property
General information

Name of the project: Extratropical hydrological cycle in modern and future climate: uncertainty and predictability.

Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development Priority Level: е

Goals and objectives

Research directions:

Interdisciplinary research of the extratropical hydrological cycle with all its components from oceanic drainages including atmospheric moisture transfer and continental hydrological processes and ending with continental drainage to the ocean.

Project objective: Interdisciplinary research of the extratropical hydrological cycle with all its components from oceanic drainages including atmospheric moisture transfer and continental hydrological processes and ending with continental drainage to the ocean.

The practical value of the study

  • We have developed methodology for evaluating moisture transfers. The methodology is based on Euler's approach and it accounts for uncertainty of computations of moisture transfers in earlier works.
  • We were the first to obtain coordinated evaluation of mean climatic moisture transfers and their interannual variability over the period between 1973 and 2013. The evaluations are based on seven modern re-analysis and data from atmospheric probing of the IGRA database.
  • By analyzing interannual variability of moisture transfers we have shown that sources of increase of moisture deposits in the Arctic are primarily local and caused by changes in nondiabatic evaporation and slight increase of precipitation that does not compensate the effect of evaporation while advective processes connected with moisture transfers by atmospheric cyclones plays secondary role.
  • Our researchers have found the tendency of decrease of duration of persistence snow cover over the period between 1976 and 2012 in Northern territories of the European part of Russia, in Western Siberia, on the Taymyr peninsula, over the majority of the territory of Eastern Siberia and Yakutia. Duration of presence of snow cover has increased in the southern part of East Siberia, in the Trans-Baikal region, in Primorye, and on the eastern coast of Kamchatka. Maximal thickness of snow cover in the Northern part of West Siberia and over a significant part of East Siberia, on the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Southern part of the Far East, in central regions of the European part of Russia. The epicenter of negative values of coefficients of linear trend in the center of West Siberia.
  • We have compiled composite pictures of all the cases of extreme evaporation processes that show that in a pressure field there is a characteristic «cyclone – anticyclone» dipole that provides sufficient influx of cold and dry air for formation of moisture transfer from the ocean into the atmosphere and potentially for formation of transfer in the atmospheric river mode. Composite maps allowed us to describe mechanisms of formation of conditions for formation of extreme head flows on the ocean-atmosphere interface in the Northern Atlantic and subsequent formation of atmospheric rivers.
  • Our researchers have conducted analysis of horizontal transfers of moisture evaporating from the surface of the ocean. We have studied dynamics of these transfers in sub-Polar regions accounting for splitting of moisture transfers caused by mean and synoptic fluctuations.
  • We have developed updated climatology of high altitude frontal zones of the Northern hemisphere and studied their interannual dynamics (to determine the role of high altitude frontal zones in formation of interannual variability of cyclic activity, for studying formation of modes of atmospheric circulation, in particular, frequency of blocking situations).
  • Our researchers have analyzed dynamics of surface drainage in Europe and the European part of Russian and its connection with various characteristics of precipitation. The results show connection between strong anomalies of drainage with anomalies of extreme and mean precipitation, especially in winter and spring when precipitation are to a considerable extent caused by intensification of atmospheric processes and their impact on in the conditions of orography of this region is almost synchronous.
  • We have shown that physical and mathematical models with distributed parameters (ECOMAG model of formation of river drainage and SWAP model of interaction between the crust surface and the atmosphere) developed by the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences have been used to compute components of hydrological cycle from measurements made by meteorological and hydrological.
  • We have conducted work to close hydrological balance of open territories. The conducted analysis of variability of moisture content of soil in the European region and its connections with key hydrologic parameters has shown that on the European territory of Russia as a whole stronger links can be seen and higher correlation coefficient between moisture content of soil and other climatic parameters (precipitation, air temperature, moisture transfer and relative precipitation).
  • The Laboratory has created a complex numerical model of continental drainage to the sea based on a combination of the STRiPE model imitating processes of propagation of of fresh water drainage in the strongly stratified upper layer of the sea under the influence of external factors, and the Princeton Ocean Model reproducing three-dimensional circulation and dynamics of temperature fields,   salinity and turbulence for a reviewed region of the sea.
  • We have found that the CMIP5 model consistently reproduces increase of mean yearly precipitation for the whole territory of Russia except for the Black Sea region and Northern Caucasus both for the moderate and the aggressive scenario of anthropogenic impact.
  • We have conducted experimental research of modulation of anthropogenic contamination of the   shelf zone of the sea by river drainage. It has been shown that almost all anthropogenic contamination of the sea on the Northern Russian shelf of the Black Sea are limited to aquatic areas and are connected with drainage of middle and minor rivers of the region into the sea.
  • Our researchers have conducted research of extreme precipitation and snow accumulation on the territory of Russia. The research allowed to find that in a big number of regions simultaneous increase of duration of both dry and humid periods can be noticed. This leads to significant clusterization of precipitation over time and to simultaneous increase of repeatability of long episodes without precipitation and rainy periods.
  • We have broadened the system of physical and mathematical regional models of hydrological cycle in middle latitudes of the Northern hemisphere. The models of the named river basins have been developed on the basis of the ECOMAG hydrological model and the SWAP model of interaction between the crust surface and the atmosphere developed earlier by the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In addition to models of basins of Lena, North Dvina, Olenyok, and Indigirka rivers that have been developed during the previous phase of the project, we have also developed models of Amur and Mackenzie rivers.

Implemented results of research:

  • Invention: Device for total cloudiness and cloud characteristics based on digital wide-angle camera. Authors: S. K. Gulev, A. V. Sinitsyn, M. A. Krinitskiy. Application No  2015118024/28(028004) filed on 14 May 2015.
  • Invention: Atmospheric helium power unit. Author: D. A. Solovyov. Application No 2017122739 filed on 26.06.2017.
  • Invention: Database of hydrologic characteristics along the trail of the Northeast Passage. Authors: S. K. Gulev, A. V. Sinitsyn, M. A. Krinitskiy, N. D. Tilinin. Application No 2017621218 filed on 08.06.2017.
  • Invention: Device for converting weak geothermal heat to electricity. Author: D. A. Solovyov. Application No 2618714 filed on 19.04.2016.
  • Invention: Siphonic method of cooling of circulating water. Author: D. A. Solovyov. Application No 2623599 filed on 20.05.2016. 

Education and career development: We have launched 6 new courses in Russian universities

Organizational and structural changes: The Laboratory has created NEFI – an international consortium of scientists from more than 20 countries.

Other results: We have conducted more than 15 scientific conferences and/or scientific sessions at leading international conferences devoted to research of environment of Northern Eurasia.

Collaborations: Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia), Moscow State University (Russia), George Washington University (USA), Hokkaido University (Japan), Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Germany): joint research and publications

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Zolina O., Simmer C., Kapala A., Shabanov P., Becker P., Mächel H., Gulev S., Groisman P.
Precipitation Variability and Extremes in Central Europe from a German High Resolution Daily Precipitation Dataset: Results from STAMMEX Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95: 995–1002 (2014).
Gusev Y.M., Nasonova O.N.
Application of a Technique for Scenario Prediction of Climate Change Impact on the Water Balance Components of Northern River Basins. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics 62: 197–208 (2014).
Bulygina O.N., Arzhanova N.M., Groisman P.Y.
Icing Conditions over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate. Environmental Research Letters 10(11): 025003 (2015).
Volosciuk C.D., Maraun D., Semenov V.A., Park W.
Extreme Precipitation in an Atmosphere General Circulation Model: Impact of Horizontal and Vertical Model Resolutions. Journal of Climate 28(3): 1184–1205 (2015).
Groisman P.Yа., Bulygina O.N., Yin X., Vose R.S., Gulev S.K., Førland E., Hanssen-Bauer I.
Recent Changes in the Frequency of Freezing Precipitation in North America and Northern Eurasia. Environmental Research Letters 11: 045007 (2016).
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